Monday, November 2, 1936

A HOT AND FIGHTING CAMPAIGN

---

Warmer - Rain this P.M.

Washed this morning. Helen

ironed this P.M.

Elsie Johnson called this P.M.

about program for next P.T.A.

Morse repaired a radio

for Leonard and Elsie and this

P.M. and returned it this evening

so they could hear the political

speeches to-night on eve of

the great election.

Ralph took kids to G.R. for their

music lessons. I gave Hank $1.00

for lessons.

Sold to V.L. Watts 3 doz. eggs

Rec'd for last week's eggs

6 1/2 doz @ 31¢ - $2.02

Listened to the final speeches of

Gov Landon, Roosevelt, Father

Coughlin and many others.

This has been a hot and

fighting campaign.

---

In 2020, we get our news live and on-demand through television, radio, mobile devices and computers. In 1936, having access to a radio was the only way to get breaking and live news.

I love that Edna noted in her journal that Morse repaired a radio so Leonard and Elsie Johnson could listen to the final speeches by Landon and Roosevelt on the eve of the 1936 election.

Edna's vote was going to Governor Alf Landon. A Literary Digest poll projected that Landon would win 370 out of 539 possible electoral votes. Edna was probably feeling fairly confident that Landon would be elected.

The poll was wrong. Once the votes were tallied, FDR had won all but two states.

The Literary Digest predicted the previous five elections correctly. When they published the results of the two million people they polled about the 1936 election, there wasn't much reason to doubt their projected outcome.

An article published by Qualtrics says there was a problem with the sample from that poll. The individuals surveyed were contacted through their phone numbers and car registration.

"During the Depression, not everyone could afford a car or a telephone. Those who did were usually wealthier, and therefore less likely to be directly helped by “New Deal” programs. As a result, this group was more likely to disapprove of Roosevelt than the general population."

The number of people surveyed also presented a problem.

An incorrect sample and size, according to the Qualtrics article "can destroy a study. Once you reach a certain number of respondents (typically around 500) additional responses begin to deliver diminishing returns."

Eighty four years after Edna wrote her thoughts on the eve of the 1936 election, we are on the eve of our own election. Polling is more scientific and accurate that it was in 1936 but no one seems to be relying on polling to predict the outcome of this election.

No matter who you are voting for Edna would want you to get out and vote (if you haven't already done so). So, go VOTE!